Monday, October 20, 2014

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

02
Happy New Year!
 
 
FINAL AIKMAN RATINGS

 
With a strong showing in the final game at Oakland, the 2013 Denver Broncos pulled ahead of a pair of great Patriots offenses (2007 and ’12) to claim the crown as greatest offense in the 19-year history of the Aikman Ratings.  Denver finished at 99.77 for the year, with a huge margin of 11.3 points over the Eagles, who were the runners up to the Broncos in the NFL’s “yards only” official measurement, as well.
 
The more-balanced Seahawks were the winners in both Aikman Combined, as well as 1st in 2013 Aikman Defense.  Seattle’s 171.4 mark in Aikman Combined is the 7th best in Aikman history, just ahead of the previous Seahawks best of 171.3 by the 2005 Super Bowl team.
 
And Seattle’s 87.0 mark in Aikman Defense marked it as the best defensive unit since Pittsburgh in 2008.
 
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Spurred by the great Denver team, the season average for Aikman Offense edged across the 80 mark for the first time (80.2, up from 79.8 last year).  Correspondingly, the Aikman Defense number dropped to 69.8, below 70.  When the Aikman Ratings were first set up in 2005 (with history to 1995), the number 75 was league average for both offense and defense, but the game has changed.
 
Thus Denver’s 99.8 is 19.6 points above league average, while Seattle’s defense is a nearly as strong 17.2 points above the NFL’s average defense in 2013.
 
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We note that the Bears were last year’s Aikman Defense leaders at 82.5, but fell to 29th this year, even as Chicago’s Aikman Offense rose from 20th to 5th.
 
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As a continued sign of the belief that the Aikman Ratings are a better measure of factors that produce victory than merely counting yards, we point out that teams with higher Aikman Game Scores won 82.0% of their games, while teams that gained more yards (the NFL’s measure of unit performance) won 63.0%.
 
We also note that the top 7 teams in the Aikman Combined made the 2013 NFL playoffs, as did 11 of the top 13 (the exceptions being the #8 Lions and the #12 Cardinals).  The 17th-ranked Packers, the team with the worst record in the field, are the one playoff team outside the top 13.

 
 
 
 
Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 17, 2013
 
                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------
Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined
   1    13-3    Seahawks           171.4     84.4     87.0        17      1     18 
   2    13-3    Broncos            167.4     99.8     67.6         1     19     20 
   3    12-4    Panthers           163.4     82.4     80.9        26      2     28 
   4    11-5    Bengals            162.8     83.6     79.2        10      3     13 
   5    12-4    49ers              160.6     82.8     77.8        24      5     29 
   6    10-6    Eagles             159.9     88.5     71.3         2     29     31 
   7    11-5    Saints             157.9     86.6     71.2         4      4      8 
   8     7-9    Lions              157.5     82.2     75.3         6     16     22 
   9    11-5    Chiefs             157.2     81.9     75.3        21     24     45 
  10    12-4    Patriots           156.7     86.7     70.0         7     26     33 
  11    11-5    Colts              154.7     84.4     70.3        15     20     35 
  12    10-6    Cardinals          152.2     76.5     75.7        12      6     18 
  13     9-7    Chargers           152.2     88.0     64.1         5     23     28 
  14     6-10   Bills              150.1     76.4     73.7        19     10     29 
  15     7-9    Rams               149.1     76.2     72.9        30     15     45 
  16     7-9    Titans             149.0     81.2     67.8        22     14     36 
  17     8-7-1  Packers            148.6     84.6     64.0         3     25     28 
  18     8-8    Bears              148.1     86.7     61.4         8     30     38 
  19     8-8    Dolphins           147.8     75.9     71.8        27     21     48 
  20     8-8    Steelers           147.2     79.3     67.9        20     13     33 
  21     8-8    Jets               147.2     74.5     72.7        25     11     36 
  22     8-8    Cowboys            146.6     86.9     59.7        16     32     48 
  23     8-8    Ravens             145.1     71.3     73.8        29     12     41 
  24     4-12   Buccaneers         143.9     72.8     71.1        32     17     49 
  25     3-13   Redskins           142.9     76.9     65.9         9     18     27 
  26     4-12   Raiders            140.1     75.7     64.4        23     22     45 
  27     7-9    Giants             139.6     67.0     72.6        28      8     36 
  28     4-12   Falcons            139.4     78.9     60.5        14     27.5   41.5
  29     5-10-1 Vikings            139.0     78.8     60.2        13     31     44 
  30     4-12   Browns             138.5     73.0     65.5        18      9     27 
  31     2-14   Texans             137.3     73.0     64.3        11      7     18 
  32     4-12   Jaguars            128.4     66.1     62.3        31     27.5   58.5
 
 
 
Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 17, 2013
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       1      Broncos             99.8
   2       2      Eagles              88.5
   3       5      Chargers            88.0
   4      16      Cowboys             86.9
   5       8      Bears               86.7
   6       7      Patriots            86.7
   7       4      Saints              86.6
   8       3      Packers             84.6
   9      17      Seahawks            84.4
  10      15      Colts               84.4
  11      10      Bengals             83.6
  12      24      49ers               82.8
  13      26      Panthers            82.4
  14       6      Lions               82.2
  15      21      Chiefs              81.9
  16      22      Titans              81.2
  17      20      Steelers            79.3
  18      14      Falcons             78.9
  19      13      Vikings             78.8
  20       9      Redskins            76.9
  21      12      Cardinals           76.5
  22      19      Bills               76.4
  23      30      Rams                76.2
  24      27      Dolphins            75.9
  25      23      Raiders             75.7
  26      25      Jets                74.5
  27      18      Browns              73.0
  28      11      Texans              73.0
  29      32      Buccaneers          72.8
  30      29      Ravens              71.3
  31      28      Giants              67.0
  32      31      Jaguars             66.1
 
NFL Average                           80.2
 
 
 
Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 17, 2013
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       1      Seahawks            87.0
   2       2      Panthers            80.9
   3       3      Bengals             79.2
   4       5      49ers               77.8
   5       6      Cardinals           75.7
   6      24      Chiefs              75.3
   7      16      Lions               75.3
   8      12      Ravens              73.8
   9      10      Bills               73.7
  10      15      Rams                72.9
  11      11      Jets                72.7
  12       8      Giants              72.6
  13      21      Dolphins            71.8
  14      29      Eagles              71.3
  15       4      Saints              71.2
  16      17      Buccaneers          71.1
  17      20      Colts               70.3
  18      26      Patriots            70.0
  19      13      Steelers            67.9
  20      14      Titans              67.8
  21      19      Broncos             67.6
  22      18      Redskins            65.9
  23       9      Browns              65.5
  24      22      Raiders             64.4
  25       7      Texans              64.3
  26      23      Chargers            64.1
  27      25      Packers             64.0
  28      27.5    Jaguars             62.3
  29      30      Bears               61.4
  30      27.5    Falcons             60.5
  31      31      Vikings             60.2
  32      32      Cowboys             59.7
 
NFL Average                           69.8
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