Friday, October 31, 2014

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

22
AIKMAN RATINGS
Thru Week 7

Four teams are clustered within 1.6 points of each other at the top of the Aikman Combined Ratings through seven weeks of NFL action, topped by the undefeated Chiefs.
 
Kansas City re-takes the top spot after the Broncos spent a week there.  Denver fell to 4th after being defeated by the Colts, who are 5th in the current Aikman Combined.
 
The Broncos retained their healthy season-long lead in the Aikman Offense Ratings, while the Chiefs continue on top in Aikman Defense as they have since Week 3.
 
The Panthers, winners over St. Louis on Sunday, have moved into 2nd in the Aikman Combined with the combination of a stout defense by any measure and an offense that stands 10th in the Aikmans, while ranking just 23rd in the NFL’s yards-only measurement.
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If you just added their NFL yards-only rankings for offense and defense, Houston, a combined 9th, would seem to be an elite team.  But the Texans are now only 2-5 and the Aikman Combined Ratings, which take into account other factors, has them a more plausible 28th.
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There are two teams that rank 12 or more places better on offense in the Aikmans than they do in the NFL’s yards-only rankings – the Panthers (10th instead of 23rd) and the Colts (2nd instead of 14th).
 
“Aikman” defenses are the Patriots (5th, not 18th), the Bills (10th, not 24th) and the Lions (15th, not 31st).
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Teams that gained more yards won only 8 of 15 games in Week 7 and stand at a 61.7% victory correlation on the season.  Teams with higher Aikman Game Ratings went 13-2 in Week 7 and have won 85.0% of the time in 2013.  
 
In Week 7, the Colts (over the Broncos), Panthers (over the Rams), 49ers (over the Titans) and Falcons (over the Buccaneers) were four teams that won by margins of over 7 points and had higher Aikman Game Ratings, yet still were outgained and saw their NFL “yards only” rankings negatively affected compared to their vanquished foes.
 

 
Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 7, 2013
 
                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------
Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined
   1     7-0    Chiefs             170.1     76.6     93.5        19      5     24  
   2     3-3    Panthers           169.8     84.4     85.4        23      3     26  
   3     6-1    Seahawks           169.0     83.6     85.4        10      2     12  
   4     6-1    Broncos            168.5    102.2     66.3         1     30     31  
   5     5-2    Colts              162.7     89.5     73.1        14     17     31  
   6     5-1    Saints             156.9     84.4     72.4         6     11     17  
   7     4-3    Lions              156.8     86.2     70.6         7     31     38  
   8     4-2    Packers            155.3     87.3     68.0         2     15     17  
   9     5-2    Patriots           154.1     77.0     77.1        16     18     34  
  10     4-3    Bears              154.1     86.2     67.9        11     26     37  
  11     4-3    Cowboys            153.8     85.5     68.3        13     29     42  
  12     4-3    Chargers           153.6     86.9     66.7         5     23     28  
  13     5-2    49ers              153.5     80.3     73.2        17      8     25  
  14     5-2    Bengals            152.4     80.3     72.1        12      9     21  
  15     3-4    Ravens             151.6     74.0     77.6        21     14     35  
  16     3-3    Dolphins           150.5     80.1     70.4        27     21     48  
  17     3-4    Bills              150.0     77.0     73.1        18     24     42  
  18     3-4    Eagles             149.2     84.3     64.9         3     32     35  
  19     2-4    Redskins           149.0     85.2     63.8         4     25     29  
  20     3-4    Titans             148.2     75.9     72.3        28     10     38  
  21     4-3    Jets               147.1     74.7     72.5        15      4     19  
  22     0-6    Buccaneers         146.9     70.6     76.3        31     13     44  
  23     3-4    Cardinals          145.1     71.2     74.0        29     16     45  
  24     3-4    Rams               143.9     76.2     67.6        30     22     52  
  25     2-4    Falcons            142.4     82.5     59.9         9     20     29  
  26     2-4    Raiders            142.4     71.9     70.5        24     12     36  
  27     3-4    Browns             141.5     74.1     67.4        26      7     33  
  28     2-5    Texans             141.5     73.6     67.9         8      1      9  
  29     2-4    Steelers           139.8     71.2     68.6        20      6     26  
  30     1-5    Vikings            135.7     71.3     64.3        25     27     52  
  31     1-6    Giants             131.3     66.5     64.8        22     19     41  
  32     0-7    Jaguars            114.2     55.5     58.6        32     28     60  
 
 
 
Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 7, 2013
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       1      Broncos            102.2
  2      14      Colts               89.5
   3       2      Packers             87.3
   4       5      Chargers            86.9
   5       7      Lions               86.2
   6      11      Bears               86.2
   7      13      Cowboys             85.5
   8       4      Redskins            85.2
   9       6      Saints              84.4
  10      23      Panthers            84.4
  11       3      Eagles              84.3
  12      10      Seahawks            83.6
  13       9      Falcons             82.5
  14      17      49ers               80.3
  15      12      Bengals             80.3
  16      27      Dolphins            80.1
  17      16      Patriots            77.0
  18      18      Bills               77.0
  19      19      Chiefs              76.6
  20      30      Rams                76.2
  21      28      Titans              75.9
  22      15      Jets                74.7
  23      26      Browns              74.1
  24      21      Ravens              74.0
  25       8      Texans              73.6
  26      24      Raiders             71.9
  27      25      Vikings             71.3
  28      20      Steelers            71.2
  29      29      Cardinals           71.2
  30      31      Buccaneers          70.6
  31      22      Giants              66.5
  32      32      Jaguars             55.5
 
NFL Average                           79.2
 
 
 
Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 7, 2013
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       5      Chiefs              93.5
   2       2      Seahawks            85.4
   3       3      Panthers            85.4
   4      14      Ravens              77.6
   5      18      Patriots            77.1
   6      13      Buccaneers          76.3
   7      16      Cardinals           74.0
   8       8      49ers               73.2
   9      17      Colts               73.1
  10      24      Bills               73.1
  11       4      Jets                72.5
  12      11      Saints              72.4
  13      10      Titans              72.3
  14       9      Bengals             72.1
  15      31      Lions               70.6
  16      12      Raiders             70.5
  17      21      Dolphins            70.4
  18       6      Steelers            68.6
  19      29      Cowboys             68.3
  20      15      Packers             68.0
  21      26      Bears               67.9
  22       1      Texans              67.9
  23      22      Rams                67.6
  24       7      Browns              67.4
  25      23      Chargers            66.7
  26      30      Broncos             66.3
  27      32      Eagles              64.9
  28      19      Giants              64.8
  29      27      Vikings             64.3
  30      25      Redskins            63.8
  31      20      Falcons             59.9
  32      28      Jaguars             58.6
 
NFL Average                           70.8

 
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