Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

15
AIKMAN RATINGS

Thru Week 6

 


The 2013 Houston Texans are the poster child for why Troy Aikman came up with the Aikman Ratings - a team that the NFL's "yards only" system rewards on offense and defense in the midst of a losing streak.

According to the NFL, they have the “number-one” rated defense in the NFL.  The NFL also declares Houston’s offense to be seventh best.  The combination total of just eight in the two categories is the best in the league.  Yet the Texans now stand 2-4.

This is all because the Texans have shown a proclivity for gaining yards and stopping other teams from gaining them.  Those are skills that have importance in the NFL, but so too does winning the turnover battle (Houston is -12), and so too is converting yards into points (the Texans are 29th in the NFL in points per red-zone possession).

Their latest loss is a microcosm of their season.  Even as they were thrashed by the Rams, 38-13, the Texans outgained St. Louis, 420 to 216.  They maintained their high NFL offensive and defensive status even as they were demolished on the scoreboard.

Against St. Louis, Houston lost four turnovers and forced none.  They came away with only one TD out of six trips to the red zone, while the Rams punched it in against the Texans defense all three times they were inside the 20.

The Aikman Ratings take this into account and Houston fell from 18th to 24th on offense and 20th to 25th on defense.  The Aikman Combined Ratings put the Texans at 28th overall, yet if you added the NFL’s “yards only” method you would think they are one of the best teams around.

- - -

Conversely, the Broncos and Chiefs, the two remaining undefeated teams, continue to rank 1-2 in the Aikman Combined Ratings, with Denver sliding up to first place this week.

The Broncos are an understandable first on offense (as they are in yards) and the Chiefs (5th by the NFL) lead in defense.

- - -

The Aikman Combined Ratings generally, but not always, seem to follow the NFL’s overall won-loss records.

One early exception this year has been Carolina.  The Panthers are fourth in the Aikman Combined after 5 games despite a 2-3 record.

Upon closer inspection, we see that Carolina’s two wins have been blowouts and the three losses include a 5-point loss to the Seahawks and a 1-point loss at Buffalo.  The Panthers have a +41 point differential (6th in the NFL), are +2 in turnover differential, are in the top 10 in both red-zone offense and defense, and are gaining more yards on both rushes and passes.  Those are some of the reasons the Panthers translate so well in the Aikman Ratings so far and could portend some victories in the weeks to come.


 
 
Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 6, 2013
 
                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------
Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined
   1     6-0    Broncos            174.0    106.3     67.7         1     29     30
   2     6-0    Chiefs             172.6     77.9     94.6        25      5     30
   3     5-1    Seahawks           169.3     81.6     87.7        10      2     12
   4     2-3    Panthers           167.9     84.2     83.6        21      3     24
   5     4-2    Colts              163.0     89.3     73.8        15     11     26
   6     4-2    Lions              158.5     85.6     72.9         9     26     35
   7     4-2    Bears              158.3     84.6     73.7        11     20     31
   8     5-1    Saints             156.9     84.4     72.4         5.5   12     17.5
   9     5-1    Patriots           156.5     76.6     79.9        14     14     28
  10     3-3    Eagles             154.7     90.9     63.8         3     32     35
  11     3-3    Titans             151.7     76.1     75.6        29     10     39
  12     3-3    Ravens             151.7     72.6     79.1        22     17     39
  13     4-2    Bengals            151.2     77.6     73.6        12      8     20
  14     2-4    Bills              150.6     78.2     72.4        16     27.5   43.5
  15     4-2    49ers              150.6     77.5     73.1        23      9     32
  16     3-2    Dolphins           150.4     81.8     68.6        28     25     53
  17     3-2    Packers            149.4     84.2     65.2         2     18     20
  18     3-3    Cowboys            149.3     86.8     62.5        13     30     43
  19     3-3    Rams               148.6     79.5     69.1        30     23     53
  20     3-3    Cardinals          148.1     70.5     77.6        26     15     41
  21     0-5    Buccaneers         147.7     69.9     77.7        31     16     47
  22     3-3    Chargers           147.5     85.2     62.2         5.5   21     26.5
  23     3-3    Browns             146.3     75.4     70.9        24      7     31
  24     3-3    Jets               145.2     72.2     73.0        20      4     24
  25     1-4    Redskins           145.1     79.4     65.7         4     27.5   31.5
  26     2-4    Raiders            142.5     72.0     70.5        27     13     40
  27     1-4    Falcons            140.2     83.2     56.9         8     19     27
  28     2-4    Texans             138.2     73.2     65.0         7      1      8
  29     1-4    Vikings            138.2     77.0     61.2        19     31     50
  30     1-4    Steelers           137.7     68.7     69.0        18      6     24
  31     0-6    Giants             124.8     66.7     58.1        17     24     41
  32     0-6    Jaguars            114.6     55.1     59.5        32     22     54
 
 
 
Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 6, 2013
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       1      Broncos            106.3
   2       3      Eagles              90.9
   3      15      Colts               89.3
   4      13      Cowboys             86.8
   5       9      Lions               85.6
   6       5.5    Chargers            85.2
   7      11      Bears               84.6
   8       5.5    Saints              84.4
   9      21      Panthers            84.2
  10       2      Packers             84.2
  11       8      Falcons             83.2
  12      28      Dolphins            81.8
  13      10      Seahawks            81.6
  14      30      Rams                79.5
  15       4      Redskins            79.4
  16      16      Bills               78.2
  17      25      Chiefs              77.9
  18      12      Bengals             77.6
  19      23      49ers               77.5
  20      19      Vikings             77.0
  21      14      Patriots            76.6
  22      29      Titans              76.1
  23      24      Browns              75.4
  24       7      Texans              73.2
  25      22      Ravens              72.6
  26      20      Jets                72.2
  27      27      Raiders             72.0
  28      26      Cardinals           70.5
  29      31      Buccaneers          69.9
  30      18      Steelers            68.7
  31      17      Giants              66.7
  32      32      Jaguars             55.1
 
NFL Average                           79.0
 
 
 
Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 6, 2013
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       5      Chiefs              94.6
   2       2      Seahawks            87.7
   3       3      Panthers            83.6
   4      14      Patriots            79.9
   5      17      Ravens              79.1
   6      16      Buccaneers          77.7
   7      15      Cardinals           77.6
   8      10      Titans              75.6
   9      11      Colts               73.8
  10      20      Bears               73.7
  11       8      Bengals             73.6
  12       9      49ers               73.1
  13       4      Jets                73.0
  14      26      Lions               72.9
  15      27.5    Bills               72.4
  16      12      Saints              72.4
  17       7      Browns              70.9
  18      13      Raiders             70.5
  19      23      Rams                69.1
  20       6      Steelers            69.0
  21      25      Dolphins            68.6
  22      29      Broncos             67.7
  23      27.5    Redskins            65.7
  24      18      Packers             65.2
  25       1      Texans              65.0
  26      32      Eagles              63.8
  27      30      Cowboys             62.5
  28      21      Chargers            62.2
  29      31      Vikings             61.2
  30      22      Jaguars             59.5
  31      24      Giants              58.1
  32      19      Falcons             56.9
 
NFL Average                           71.0
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